Our work

How we help you win.

Three deliverables, described in full: a precinct level target model, a message test readout and a turnout tracker built for one race. The specification under each one is what arrives, and it is the same whatever the office.

The three deliverables

Each one is built for a single race. The specification under each image is what the campaign receives, including what is written on its front page.

Illustrative format

Precinct level target model

Where the persuadable vote sits, block by block, with a count attached to every block and the assumptions behind the count written out in words next to it.

Unit Precinct, and split precinct where the data supports it
Contents A persuasion score and a turnout score per unit, plus the walk and call lists that fall out of them
Front page Which units the model is confident about, which it is not, and why
Refreshed Monthly across the engagement

Illustrative format

Message test readout

Which of five closing arguments moved which part of the electorate, how far it moved them, and which ones did nothing at all. The ones that did nothing are reported too.

Method Insights fieldwork, self selected respondents, stated as such
Contents Movement by message and by group, with the exact wording tested printed in full
Front page Field dates, who was reached, and no margin of error, because this sample cannot carry one
Delivered Written readout, plus one working session on what to do with it

Illustrative format

Turnout tracker built for one race

A single screen the campaign manager opens each morning, built around one campaign’s own data rather than a product sold to everyone.

Scope One race, one jurisdiction, one set of election rules
Contents Early and absentee returns against the model, by precinct, by day
Front page What the tracker can see and what it cannot, written on the screen itself
Handover The campaign keeps its own data at the end of the cycle

How an engagement runs

How the work runs

Every engagement runs over nine to twelve months and follows the same steps.

Scope and price in writing. Sent back after the first email. It names the question, the deliverables, the dates and the monthly figure.
Baseline. Modeling on the file the campaign already has, so there are targets to work from in the first few weeks.
Insights in the field. Conversations with the people who will decide the race, repeated in waves through the cycle.
Readouts the campaign can act on. Each one says what the data supports, what it does not, and what the campaign should do next week.
Close out. The campaign keeps the model, the data and the tools.

Ask what this would look like in your race

Tell us about your race.

Send the office, the election date and what you have set aside for research. We write back with what we would do, what arrives each month and what it costs.

Contact Upset Research